Investing.com — With Election Day fast approaching and market volatility expected to rise, Evercore ISI analysts have assessed how markets are reacting to the potential outcomes of a Trump or Harris presidency.
Their event study, based on key campaign moments, sheds light on the sectors most responsive to shifts in electoral sentiment.
According to Evercore ISI, pro-Trump developments, such as the June 27 Biden-Trump debate and the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump, were most favorable for financial stocks. On the other hand, pro-Harris events, like the September 10 Trump-Harris debate, saw clean energy and ACA/Medicaid-related healthcare stocks perform best.
“For many sectors, the event study confirms our general views of the Trump vs. Harris impact if elected,” Evercore ISI wrote.
Interestingly, oil and gas stocks—despite Trump’s focus on domestic energy production—were not major movers in these scenarios. “Global market forces continue to be the main driver in that sector,” the report explained.
The study also highlighted areas where election-related policy nuances are not fully priced in.
For example, different segments of the clean energy sector, such as solar and electric vehicles, carry varying degrees of policy risk, which markets may not yet be capturing.
“We see some evidence of the threat of Trump 2.0 trade wars,” the analysts noted, though they added that investors “may not have found ways to fully express this risk.”
Evercore ISI also flagged an emerging tax policy issue for REIT investors that could gain attention in 2025 once the campaign rhetoric shifts to governing. As the election nears, the markets appear to be balancing the sectoral shifts with broader economic and geopolitical considerations.