India is expected to experience an extreme summer this year, with more heatwave days between March and May in most parts of the country, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

The forecast, issued on February 28, 2025, predicts above-normal temperatures for most regions, except Northeast India, extreme north India, and some parts of southern Peninsular India.

With rising temperatures, electricity consumption is set to increase significantly as households and businesses ramp up their use of air-conditioners and coolers.

In response, the Indian government has been preparing to meet the anticipated peak demand, ensuring an adequate supply of power throughout the summer months.

“We are expecting a peak demand of 270 Gigawatts this summer. All the preparations are in place to meet that demand,” said Ghanshyam Prasad, chairman of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

The government is expected to utilize its full capacity to ensure uninterrupted power supply, with a special focus on managing shortages in April, May, June, and September-October, which are projected to be the most crucial months for electricity demand.

“Demand for power, both energy and peak power, in India has been growing at an unprecedented level of 8.5% in recent years for FY 21-24. Peak demand touched 250GW on May 30, 2024. However, during 10MFY25, demand was subdued with energy/peak growing a meagre 3.6% YoY/ 2.3% YoY,” JM Financial said recently.

There is a high probability of higher power demand from irrigation during the ensuing wheat and, then, paddy sowing seasons. As per our analysis of FY23-25, around 10% of power demand in India is sensitive to rainfall, the brokerage said.

“We estimate energy/peak power demand to grow to 1,828BU/ 270GW at 7.5%/8.0% during FY26, which is also in alignment with estimates,” it said.

With demand for power set to rise, stocks from the power sector may benefit in the coming months.

Based on technical charts, five power stocks show potential for significant gains, with upside potential of up to 27%.

NTPC: Poised for recovery

Current Price: Rs 327

Upside Potential: 14.7%

Support Levels: Rs 306; Rs 300

Resistance Levels: Rs 345; Rs 350

NTPC shares have been consolidating around the 100-week moving average (WMA) at Rs 306 for the past nine trading weeks.

Key momentum indicators such as the RSI and Stochastic Slow suggest a positive outlook.

The stock may attempt to rally towards Rs 375, with interim resistance at Rs 345 and Rs 350.

On the downside, crucial support lies at Rs 306 and Rs 300.

Tata Power: Strong base formation

Current Price: Rs 353

Upside Potential: 22.4%

Support Levels: Rs 347; Rs 330

Resistance Levels: Rs 361; Rs 368; Rs 391; Rs 415

Tata Power has been stabilizing around its 100-WMA at Rs 347, with strong support at Rs 330.

If the stock sustains above this level, it may see a rally toward Rs 432. Interim resistance is expected at Rs 361, Rs 368, Rs 391, and Rs 415.

NHPC: Holding key support

Current Price: Rs 77

Upside Potential: 21.4%

Support Levels: Rs 74.40; Rs 71

Resistance Levels: Rs 79.60; Rs 81; Rs 86.30; Rs 91

NHPC has repeatedly found support around Rs 71 over the past month.

The stock has also managed to hold above its 100-WMA at Rs 74.40, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook.

A breakout above Rs 79.60 could trigger a rally toward Rs 93.50, with interim resistance at Rs 81, Rs 86.30, and Rs 91.

CESC: Breakout signals strength

Current Price: Rs 141

Upside Potential: 20.6%

Support Levels: Rs 133; Rs 126

Resistance Levels: Rs 146; Rs 160

CESC recently broke above a key resistance level, confirming a bullish breakout.

The stock has strong support at Rs 133 and Rs 126, with the potential to rally up to Rs 170.

Interim resistance levels to watch are Rs 146 and Rs 160.

JSW Energy: Eyes fresh highs

Current Price: Rs 497

Upside Potential: 27.2%

Support Levels: Rs 471; Rs 435

Resistance Levels: Rs 510; Rs 565; Rs 595

JSW Energy has been holding above its short-term moving average (20-DMA) for the past four sessions, and momentum indicators suggest a favorable trend.

However, the stock must cross Rs 510 to trigger fresh upward momentum.

If successful, it may climb to Rs 632, with interim resistance at Rs 565 and Rs 595. Support exists at Rs 471 and Rs 435.

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February wasn’t a particularly good month for US equities.

The first trading day began with a sharp sell-off which saw all the US majors gap lower.

Why? Tariffs.

Just one week into his second term as President of the United States, and Donald Trump did exactly what he said he would do, announcing swingeing tariffs, not just on his old trade enemy, China, but on his neighbours to the north and south too. 

Reports came in over that weekend that President Trump was preparing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports (but ‘just’ 10% on Canadian oil), along with an additional 10% on Chinese goods.

The latter was on top of the levies that he had arranged during his first term, and which were kept in place by his successor (and predecessor) Joe Biden.

The tariffs were set to kick in on Tuesday, 4th February, and the news triggered fears of an international trade war, with all combatants threatening retaliation. 

Most investors had left for the weekend believing that President Trump’s tariff threats were a negotiating tactic that would never be realized in full.

And they weren’t entirely wrong. There was a small window for negotiation, and guess what?

Mr Trump ended up postponing the levies on Mexico and Canada after both countries promised to take action to crack down on illegal immigration and drug smuggling through their porous borders.

No such luck for China which was enjoying its extended Lunar New Year holidays. 

The tariff postponement led to a sharp rally across US stock indices, which ultimately resulted in new all-time highs for both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 just two weeks later.

But it wasn’t to last, and equities began to slide. A strong fourth quarter earnings season had provided a tailwind for stocks. But this fizzled out after NVIDIA’s strong numbers just weren’t strong enough.

The Dow, NASDAQ, S&P and Russell 2000 limped and stumbled through the following fortnight and finished off February in negative territory. 

And here we are in March and it’s all happening again.

Only this time there was no tariff delay for Canada and Mexico, while China copped an additional 10%.

With tit-for-tat measures now a certainty, investors worry that this is the start of a global trade war, particularly as President Trump said that Europe could be next. 

Many economists believe that tariffs will result in another burst of inflation in the US, although those around Mr Trump say there’s no basis for that forecast.

But it seems likely that global growth will take a hit, and that is showing up in bond yields which have fallen sharply.

US equities are not taking this well, although so far the damage to European stock indices has proved minimal. 

Interestingly, the US dollar has turned sharply lower, with the Dollar Index trading down to levels last seen just after Donald Trump’s election victory back in early November.

Again, this suggests that investors are less concerned about tariffs boosting inflation, and more worried about the outlook for US economic growth. 

Could this mean that we’ve already seen the top in US equities, or are we about to enjoy an exceptional buying opportunity ahead of fresh all-time highs?

It’s too early to say. But the trouble, or benefit, with Trump’s second term is that volatility is back with a vengeance. And markets will once again be driven by news headlines. 

(David Morrison is a Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. Views are his own.)

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Aluminium composite panels (ACPs) have become a key element in modern architecture due to their versatility, durability, and aesthetic flexibility, and Indian ACP manufacturers are playing a crucial role in pushing the construction material out into the global market.

Euro Panel and Products, one of the leading manufacturers of ACP in India, recently made an INR 30 crore investment to integrate an advanced coating line with a capacity of 750 tonnes monthly, which will help it decouple from Chinese supply chain dependencies, where coated coils were imported from China.

In an interview with Invezz, Rajesh Shah, chairman and MD at Euro Panel, anticipates 2025 to contain strong tailwinds for ACP demand in India, with the government of India’s ambitious infra push, the Smart Cities Mission, and revival in commercial real estate sector.

However, there are also headwinds in the form of volatility in alumina and aluminium prices, as well as the imposition of tariffs by the US on steel and aluminium imports.

Shah says the company’s recent backward integration initiatives give it greater control over raw material sourcing, cushioning it from volatility in commodity prices.

As far as impact of tariffs go, Shah says, “While we anticipate short-term pricing pressures due to tariffs, our diversified supply chain and strong global partnerships provide us with a strategic advantage.”

Edited excerpts:

Infrastructure push, commercial real estate to drive demand for ACP in 2025

Invezz: What is your forecast for the ACP market in 2025? Which sectors are expected to drive demand for ACP? 

The ACP market in 2025 is poised for remarkable growth, fuelled by India’s rapid urbanization and the government’s ambitious infrastructure push.

With large-scale metro rail expansions, airport modernisations, and railway station overhauls gaining momentum, the demand for high-quality ACP solutions is expected to surge.

Additionally, the commercial real estate sector is witnessing a strong revival, with corporate offices, IT parks, and retail spaces investing heavily in premium façade solutions to enhance aesthetic appeal and sustainability. 

At Eurobond, we anticipate a significant industry shift towards advanced, fire-retardant, and eco-friendly ACP products, in line with the tightening of safety and environmental regulations.

The government’s Smart Cities Mission, coupled with increasing adoption of ACP in luxury residential projects and retail branding, will further accelerate demand.

With these strong tailwinds, 2025 promises to be an exciting and transformative year for the ACP industry. 

Invezz: Do you have any plans to expand manufacturing capacity or set up new plants in  India or abroad for both ACP and ZCP? 

Eurobond has always taken a forward-thinking approach to capacity expansion.

Our recent strategic backward integration and significant capacity enhancements have strengthened our manufacturing capabilities, ensuring we stay ahead of market demand.

Actively exploring strategic investments to enhance global footprint

Our current infrastructure is designed to scale efficiently, allowing us to meet growing industry needs without any immediate requirement for additional plants. 

However, as a dynamic and growth-driven company, we continuously assess global and domestic market trends.

With increasing international interest in high-quality ACP and ZCP  solutions, we are actively exploring strategic investments that can enhance our global footprint.

Our focus remains on strengthening our supply chain, optimizing production efficiencies, and maintaining a competitive edge through cutting-edge innovation.

If market conditions present viable opportunities, we are prepared to expand further in key international markets to reinforce our leadership position. 

Invezz: Are you looking at international growth markets, or is domestic demand the primary focus? 

Both domestic and international markets are integral to our growth strategy.

India is currently undergoing an infrastructure revolution, with rapid urban expansion, commercial developments, and government-backed projects fuelling an unprecedented demand for ACP solutions.

As a leading player in the industry, we are deeply committed to supporting this domestic boom by delivering innovative and high-performance products.

China’s removal of VAT rebate on metal exports has made Indian ACPs more competitive

At the same time, global demand for premium ACP and ZCP solutions is on the rise, and Eurobond is actively expanding its international footprint.

We have already established strong relationships in multiple global markets and are leveraging India’s increasing competitiveness in the export sector.

With China’s recent removal of its VAT rebate on metal exports, Indian ACP manufacturers now have a strategic pricing advantage, making our  products more competitive worldwide.

This shift opens new doors for us to capture a larger share of the global market while reinforcing our domestic stronghold. 

Invezz: Alumina prices hit record highs in 2024. How did it impact your business?  Aluminium is expected to be in deficit in 2025 as well. How do you plan to tackle the cost fluctuations and ensure profitability? 

The volatility in alumina and aluminium prices has undoubtedly posed a challenge for the entire industry.

However, Eurobond has always operated with a proactive risk-mitigation strategy.

Our recent backward integration gives us greater control over raw material sourcing, reducing our reliance on fluctuating global supply chains.

Additionally, we have diversified our supplier base and implemented stringent cost optimization measures across our production processes. 

Operational efficiency remains at the core of our strategy.

By leveraging advanced manufacturing technologies, lean production methods, and alternative material innovations, we have successfully minimized cost escalations while maintaining our commitment to quality.

Looking ahead, we continue to invest in process improvements and explore alternative material solutions that will help insulate our business from commodity price swings, ensuring long-term stability and profitability. 

Impact of Trump Tariffs on steel and aluminium imports

Invezz: How do you see Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports impacting your supply chain and business in the US, India, and other countries? 

Global trade policies, including tariffs, have always played a significant role in shaping supply chains, and the recent developments under the Trump administration will certainly influence global market dynamics.

However, Eurobond has built a highly resilient and flexible sourcing strategy that allows us to swiftly adapt to changing economic and geopolitical conditions. 

While we anticipate short-term pricing pressures due to tariffs, our diversified supply chain and strong global partnerships provide us with a strategic advantage.

For our US clients, we are continuously optimizing supply routes and exploring alternative trade agreements to ensure seamless operations.

Meanwhile, in India and other key markets, we are strengthening our domestic ecosystem to reduce dependencies and enhance supply chain stability.

By proactively adapting to global trade shifts, we remain confident in our ability to navigate these challenges while maintaining steady growth.

On competition with China

Invezz: Chinese ACPs are often cheaper—how is Eurobond tackling the competition? 

Chinese ACP manufacturers have historically enjoyed a pricing advantage due to government subsidies and tax incentives.

However, the recent removal of China’s VAT rebate on metal exports has led to an estimated 13% cost increase for Chinese manufacturers, significantly altering the competitive landscape.

This change has made Indian exports far more competitive, and Eurobond is well-positioned to capitalize on this shift. 

Beyond pricing, our core differentiators lie in product quality, durability, and adherence to stringent fire safety standards—areas where we consistently outperform low-cost imports. 

We also prioritize innovation, customer-centric solutions, and superior after-sales service, ensuring our clients recognize the long-term value of choosing Eurobond.

Our strong brand reputation, combined with our commitment to sustainable and high-performance ACP  solutions, enables us to maintain a competitive edge and drive continued growth in both domestic and international markets.

(USD 1=INR 87.10)

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A wave of artificial intelligence (AI) developments from Chinese technology firms has triggered a buying frenzy in the nation’s stock market, sending an index of tech companies to its highest level in years.

Leading the surge, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. unveiled its latest AI model, while other major players, including Tencent and Kuaishou Technology, also introduced new AI tools.

Alibaba’s unveiling of DeepSeek contender leads surge in tech stocks

Alibaba’s announcement of its QwQ-32B AI model, an open-source tool that significantly advances its previous version, fuelled an 8.4% surge in its stock price in Hong Kong.

The QwQ-32B model, which boasts 32 billion parameters, is positioned to challenge DeepSeek’s R1 and OpenAI’s offerings.

Kuaishou Technology, which launched a competing AI video model, saw its shares skyrocket by 16%, marking its biggest single-day gain in over two years.

The broader Chinese tech index surged 5.4%, reaching its strongest level since 2021.

The rally also extended to AI-related firms in mainland China.

Focus Technology Co., which develops AI-powered agent products, hit the 10% daily limit, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the sector.

Government reiterates support to AI development at National People’s Congress

The latest AI boom was further reinforced by policy signals from Beijing.

At the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Chinese government reiterated its commitment to supporting AI development, with a focus on large-scale AI models, intelligent manufacturing, and next-generation AI applications.

“The supportive rhetoric to AI announced at the NPC sets a proper context for Chinese AI innovation to move forward,” said Linda Lam, head of equity advisory North Asia at Union Bancaire Privee.

“Looking ahead, we expect a proliferation of open-source AI applications from China and the US, to propel the tech rally globally.”

The AI-driven surge mirrors the effect of DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough earlier this year, which set off a bullish run in Chinese stocks and sent ripples across global markets.

With multiple firms rolling out advanced models and AI services, the competitive landscape in China is heating up.

Alibaba’s ambitious AI investment plans

Alibaba has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI-driven market rally, adding approximately $153 billion in market value since its January low.

The company has stabilized after a prolonged government crackdown and is now leveraging AI to drive its recovery.

To solidify its AI leadership, Alibaba has pledged to invest more than 380 billion yuan ($52 billion) over the next three years in AI infrastructure, including data centers.

This ambitious investment plan positions Alibaba as a key contender in China’s AI race.

Tech stocks remain attractively valued

Despite the significant gains, Chinese tech stocks remain relatively undervalued compared to their US counterparts.

The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently trading at around 19 times forward earnings, a stark contrast to its 45 times multiple from four years ago.

“We see a further re-rating happening in the market given how cheap a lot of the China tech stocks look compared to their U.S. peers,” said Ken Wong, an Asian equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments in a Bloomberg report.

“Showcasing the enthusiasm is that even some hardware tech names which haven’t really performed earlier are going up,” he said.

Chinese firms seek to outpace global peers

As competition in AI intensifies, Chinese firms are seeking to outpace global counterparts.

Manus AI recently claimed its general AI agent outperformed OpenAI’s DeepResearch in some areas, highlighting China’s growing expertise in artificial intelligence.

Alibaba’s QwQ-32B model, which boasts 32 billion parameters, is positioned to challenge DeepSeek’s R1 and OpenAI’s offerings.

With efficiency and minimal data usage as key differentiators, Chinese AI firms are focusing on creating models that are both powerful and resource-efficient.

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US housing stocks are having a hard time this year amidst higher tariffs the Trump administration has announced on the likes of Canada and Mexico.

Washington relies significantly on foreign imports for materials essential for home construction. These include cement, aluminum, steel, wood products, and even some appliances.  

As a result, the cost of building a house will likely increase materially in the wake of Trump tariffs, according to a recent report from CoreLogic.

That’s part of the reason why the iShares US Home Construction exchange-trade fund (ETF) has lost nearly 12% since late January.

Canada and Mexico export two key home construction materials

In particular, the US relies on Canada and Mexico for two essential home construction materials: gypsum products including lime and softwood lumber.

The world’s largest economy imports nearly 70% of the softwood lumber from Canada while 71% of the gypsum products it requires come from Mexico.

“Even incremental increases in the cost of materials, labour, and equipment make it that much more difficult to build a home profitably,” according to CoreLogic’s executive Pete Carroll.

Trump tariffs will make it significantly more difficult for the US to close the critical gap in housing supply, he added in a statement on Thursday.

US home prices could increase by up to $22,000 in 2025

All in all, the information services provider expects Trump tariffs to increase construction costs by up to 6% over the next 12 months.

Such an increase will raise sticker prices on new homes by $17,000 to $22,000, as per a CoreLogic estimate.

That’s significant considering the average price of building a home in the US already sits at a whopping $422,000.

US housing stocks are seeing pressure this year as tariffs and the related increase in construction costs could hurt affordability and prove to be a menace for the first-time homebuyers in 2025.

Investors should note, however, that homebuilders are broadly known to be dividend stocks.

US continues to grapple with a housing shortage

What’s also worth mentioning is that Trump tariffs do not paint a rosy picture for construction materials that are produced within the United States either.

Recent data indicates that “a rush on domestic materials would overwhelm current production,” and may lead to supply shortages and higher prices over the medium to long term, according to the CoreLogic report.

And “as builders pass extra costs on to homebuyers, housing will become less affordable” in the US, said Matt Saunders of John Burns Research & Consulting in a recent interview with CNBC.

Note that housing shortage in the United States is a significant concern that has built over decades. The country currently faces a deficit of about 4.5 million homes, as demand continues to outpace supply.

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