Dogecoin price wavered this week as the recent crypto momentum waned. DOGE, the top meme coin, was trading at $0.1757 on Wednesday, a few points below the week’s high of $0.1926. This article explores how high the DOGE price may surge of the SEC approves spot ETFs and the risks to note.

Dogecoin price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the DOGE price bottomed at $0.1292 earlier this month and then rebounded to a high of $0.1925. This rebound happened as Bitcoin and other altcoins rallied after Trump softened his stance against China, and after he said that he was not considering firing Jerome Powell. 

Dogecoin also bounced back after forming a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart. A wedge is a popular bullish reversal sign in technical analysis as it signals that the selling pressure is fading.

The coin has found substantial resistance at $0.1925, which coincided with the 50-day moving average. This moving average has acted a strong resistance several times in the past.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all moved downwards, a sign that the coin has lost momentum. This implies that the DOGE price has a neutral outlook today, and it may either rally or resume its downtrend. 

The Dogecoin price action will depend on key levels. A clear break above the key resistance at $0.2050, the highest swing in April, will confirm a bullish breakout and lead to more gains. On the other hand, a drop below the year-to-date low at $0.1292 will invalidate the bullish outlook and lead to a collapse to $0.10.

How high can Dogecoin rise if the SEC approves a DOGE ETF?

A Dogecoin ETF approval would push the price much higher to $0.4336, the highest level reached on January 18, which is approximately 145% above the current level. 

However, there is a caveat to this. First, the rally would happen immediately after the ETF is approved. And analysts believe that this will happen soo, as Polymarket odds of this have jumped to over 57%. 

Odds of a DOGE ETF approval are high because it is a proof-of-work network like Bitcoin and is not a security. 

The risk, however, is that Dogecoin funds will not have substantial inflows from investors. Publicly available data shows that investors are only interested in Bitcoin ETFs.  These funds have already attracted over $38 billion in inflows, while Ethereum funds have received less than $2.5 billion. 

Another factor is that the Dogecoin price will depend on the performance of Bitcoin. Historically, DOGE and other altcoins thrive only when Bitcoin is in a strong rally. Indeed, the ongoing recovery is underway, as BTC has jumped to $95,000 from its recent low of $74,000.

The other catalyst that will help to drive the value of DOGE after the ETF approval will be the performance of the stock market. Crypto and stocks have a close correlation with each other over time. 

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The Nikkei 225 Index has experienced a strong comeback in the past few weeks, as investors have focused on the potential trade deal between the United States and Japan. It also jumped as the odds of more Bank of Japan (BoJ) hikes fell. It was trading at ¥36,000 on Wednesday, up nearly 17% from its lowest point this month. 

Why the Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded

There are three primary reasons why the Nikkei Index has rebounded over the past few weeks. First, the rebound is part of the ongoing stock market rally. Indeed, a closer look at most top global indices like the Hang Seng, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 has all rallied by double digits in the past few weeks. 

Second, the index has jumped as Japan and the US continue to negotiate on a trade deal that will let the US lower tariffs. The two countries have already held the first round of talks, and officials are now preparing the second phase. These talks primarily focus on farm products and the automotive sector.

Japan and the Nikkei 225 Index needs a trade deal that will lower the tariffs on the auto sector. That’s because the current 25% tax rate is not sustainable for Japan as its vehicles will become unaffordable to US citizens.

Trump hopes that the tariffs on vehicles and parts will encourage more Japanese companies to relocate their production to the US, thereby reducing the deficit. A report released earlier this month showed that Japan had a whopping $63 billion surplus against the US last month. 

Bank of Japan decision

The Nikkei 225 Index has also jumped as investors slashed their Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes forecasts as the economy softened. 

A report released on Thursday showed that Japan’s industrial production dropped by 1.1% in March, as the automobile tariffs took effect. The 1.1% contraction was weaker than the median estimate of minus 0.4% and the February growth rate of 2.3%.

More data showed that Japan’s retail sales declined by 1.2% in March, a larger contraction than the median estimate of 0.4% increase. 

Therefore, analysts expect that the BoJ will leave interest rates unchanged when it concludes its meeting on Friday. 

This explains why Japan bond yields have remained under pressure in the past few days. The yield on the ten-year retreated to 1.30%, down from the year-to-date high of 1.588%. Similarly, the 30-year yield has dropped to 2.7% from the year-to-date high of 2.90%.

The BoJ has been one of the most hawkish central banks in recent months, having delivered two rate hikes. It did that in its fight against inflation as consumer prices jumped. The most recent data showed that Japan’s inflation stood at 3.6% in March, higher than the target of 2.0%.

Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis

Nikkei Index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index has bounced back in the past few weeks even as tariffs remained. It moved from a low of ¥30,850 earlier this month and reached the current ¥36,000. 

The index has already moved above the 25-day moving average, and is about to cross the 50-day MA. A complete move above the 50-day MA will lead to more gains, potentially to the key resistance level at ¥37,645, the lowest swing in October last year. A drop below the 25-day MA point at ¥35,110 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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Ethereum price remains under pressure, and has hit a crucial resistance as its average transaction fees crash. ETH was trading at $1,810 on Wednesday, up by over 30% from the lowest level this month. This article explains why the coin has plummeted from its high of $4,100 last year to its current price of $1,810.

Ethereum transaction fees have plunged

The first chart above shows that the average transaction fees on Ethereum network has continued falling this year. According to Santiment, the fees stand at $0.142 on Wednesday, down from last November’s high of $2.3. It has also dropped sharply from the 2021 high of almost $70.

Ethereum’s network fee is determined by demand for its solutions, like decentralized finance (DeFi) and stablecoins. When demand for these services is rising, users bid higher prices, which drives the average costs up, and vice versa. Therefore, the falling transaction fees is a sign that demand for its network remains significantly low.

A likely reason for this is that many users have turned to layer-2 networks like Base and Arbitrum. These networks continue to attract more users, who are drawn by their superior speeds and lower costs. 

This trend explains why Ethereum has been overtaken by other networks in terms of fees this year. It has made just $241 million this year, much lower than Tron’s $1.08 billion and Solana’s $403 million. 

Number of Ethereum active addresses has stalled

The chart above also explains why the Ethereum price has crashed. This chart shows that the number of daily active addresses in the network has stalled in the past few months.

It had 413,000 active addresses on April 30, down from the year-to-date high of 737,000, which occurred in February. The chart shows that the address growth has stalled. Ideally, you would expect its price to do well when the figure is growing.

Other top chains are seeing higher active addresses. Solana had over 26.2 million transactions in the last seven days, while Tron and BNB Chain had 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.

Read more: Ethereum price prediction March: Is another 50% crash possible?

ETH transaction count has dropped

More data indicates that the number of daily transactions on the Ethereum network has decreased recently. This chart further reinforces the findings presented in the other two charts. Ethereum’s network handled 7.69 million transactions on April 30, down from this month’s high of 11.4 million. 

Other blockchain networks are experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume. For example, Solana handled over 418 million transactions in the last seven days, which is equivalent to 59 million a day. Similarly, Tron handled 57 million transactions in the last seven days or 8 million a day.

Ethereum is losing market share

Further data shows that Ethereum is not the dominant player it was in the decentralized finance industry a few years ago. It has been overtaken by Solana, which handled over $68 billion in the last seven days. Ethereum handled over $56 billion in this period. 

At the same time, other networks like Sui, Unichain, Tron, and Base have continued to capture its market share. 

Ethereum price formed a triple-top

The other important chart to watch is Ethereum’s weekly chart. As shown above, the coin formed a triple top pattern at the resistance point of $4,078. This is usually one of the most bearish chart patterns. 

The coin has also plunged below the neckline at $2,130, its lowest level on August 5. Therefore, there is a risk that the coin will continue falling, with the next point to watch being at $1,000. This target is derived by measuring the depth of the double top and then extrapolating it from the neckline. 

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Bitcoin price has held steady in the past few days, and is hovering near its highest level since February 24. BTC has jumped by over 27% from its lowest level this year, and technicals suggest that the coin will keep rising in the near term. This article explores the top reasons to buy top Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Cathie Wood’s ARKB. 

Bitcoin price technicals point to more upside

The first important reason to buy Bitcoin and its top ETFs, such as IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB, is that they have strong technical indicators signaling further gains in the coming months. 

The weekly chart shows several important bullish patterns that may push it higher in the long term. It bottomed out at $15,463 in November 2022, following FTX’s bankruptcy filing. This price marked the lower side of the cup and handle pattern whose upper side was at $68,900.

A cup and handle is one of the most bullish chart patterns in the financial market. It has a depth of about 77%. 

The handle section happened between April and November last year.  This handle was also a megaphone chart pattern, a popular bullish signal in the market.

Bitcoin price then made a strong bullish breakout and reached a record high of $109,200. It has moved above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls remain in control for now.

Bitcoin has retested the important support level at $73,757, the highest level in March last year. This price was the upper side of the handle section. A break-and-retest pattern is a popular bullish continuation sign in the market.

Therefore, the Bitcoin price will likely continue soaring in the near term. The initial target for this target is between $122,000 and $123,000. This price is identified by measuring the depth of the cup from its upper side.

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

Analysts are bullish on Bitcoin 

The other reason to invest in Bitcoin and ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB is that analysts are highly bullish on Bitcoin and other altcoins.

In a report released this week, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank predicted that the coin will likely surge to $200,000 by year-end. StanChart has been one of the most optimistic and accurate analysts regarding Bitcoin.

Ark Invest, the company owned by Cathie Wood, gave a bullish Bitcoin price prediction, expecting the coin to rise to $2.4 million by 2030.

Further, Michael Saylor has predicted that Bitcoin will eventually jump to over $5 million in the next few years. His higher estimate is that it may get to $45 million over time.

Bitcoin has become a safe-haven asset 

Further data shows that Bitcoin is slowly becoming a safe-haven asset. Recent data indicate that Bitcoin has performed significantly better than the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices since Donald Trump initiated his trade war earlier this month.

Analysts note that Bitcoin will eventually catch up with gold, an asset whose price has surged to a record high this year as investors embraced its role as a safe haven asset. This explains why these ETFs recorded substantial inflows even as the stock market imploded.

They identify Bitcoin’s superior features compared to gold. It has a limited supply cap of 21 million and undergoes a halving event every four years. Halving is a process where the block rewards are reduced by half, thus increasing the mining difficulty.

The bottom line on buying IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB ETFs

History shows that Bitcoin price does well over time. It jumped from below $1 in 2009 to over $94,000 today. It experienced some pullbacks during the climb. All drops have turned out to be good areas to dip. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the coin will continue soaring over time.

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Polkadot price continues to oscillate at a crucial support level after crashing by over 65% from its highest level in November last year. DOT token was trading at $4.15, a few points above the year-to-date low of $3.65. This article explains the top reasons why the DOT price may go parabolic in the coming weeks.

Polkadot staking is surging 

The first main reason when the Polkadot price may surge in the coming months is that there are signs of rising demand from investors.

Data by StakingRewards shows that the staking market cap has jumped to over $3.5 billion this year. This valuation gives it a staking ratio of 54.4%, which is higher than most related tokens like Ethereum and Solana.

A high staking yield is a sign that many investors have a long-term outlook for the coin, as stakers typically hold these coins for an extended period due to the monthly return.

More so, Polkadot has a staking yield of 11.68%, higher than other similar cryptocurrencies like Solana, Ethereum, and Sui. This yield means that s $10,000 investment in Polkadot will generate an annual return of about $1,100.

Read more: Polkadot price predictions: 4 reasons DOT token may surge soon

DOT ETF approval odds

The other potential catalyst for the Polkadot price is the potential approval of a spot DOT ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Companies like Grayscale and 21Shares have applied for that ETF.

The SEC has undergone significant changes this year under the Donald Trump administration. He appointed Paul Atkins to head the agency, a major victory for the crypto industry, as he had been a long-time crypto lawyer.

The SEC has signaled that it is open to more crypto ETFs as part of its light touch regulatory process. It has already ended lawsuits against tens of companies like Ripple, Coinbase, and Uniswap.

An ETF approval would validate the role of Polkadot in the crypto industry. It would also lead to more inflows from Wall Street investors, especially if the agency allowed staking of the token.

Stablecoin inflows steady 

The other notable reason to but Polkadot is that the amount of stablecoins in the network has been steady this year, a sign that demand for the ecosystem is rising.

Polkadot has over $100 million in stablecoins in the network. Most of these stablecoins are USD Coin (USDC), which dominates over 60%.

Stablecoins offer one of the best ways to measure the activeness of s network since they are the currencies used in the blockchain. The biggest chains in terms of stablecoins are popular names like Ethereum, Solana, and Tron 

Polkadot 2.0 upgrade 

The other major reason to buy Polkadot is that the network is changing through the process of Polkadot 2.0 upgrade.

Polkadot 2.0 is made up of three key areas, three of which have already been implemented.

The first one was asynchronous backing, which allowed parachains to produce blocks without being tied to the Relay Chain, reducing the block times from 12 seconds to 6 seconds. This made it one of the fastest players in the crypto industry.

Polkadot 2.0 also had agile coretime, which replaced the traditional slot auction model that was seen as more complicated and expensive. 

The developers are now working on elastic scaling, which enables the network to adjust its computational capacity based on demand. This phase is still in development and will be launched this year.

Polkadot price technical analysis 

DOT price chart | Source: TradingView

The other reason to buy Polkadot is that it is in a strong support level. It has dropped to a low of $4.1, slightly above the key support at $3.68. A closer look at the weekly chart shows that it always bounces back by triple digits whenever it touches this level.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the coin will bounce back, and retest the important resistance level at $11.60, which is about 187% above the current level. A drop below that support point will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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