Estee Lauder stock price has been in a free fall in the past few years as the company’s growth waned. EL has declined by over 83% from its peak in 2021, underperforming other companies in the consumer staples and discretionary sectors. This drop has led to a $116 billion wipeout as the valuation has collapsed from $139 billion to $23.3 billion.

Estee Lauder’s growth has stalled

Estee Lauder, the parent company of well-known brands such as Clinique, Origins, MAC, Bobbi Brown, and Aveda, has faced pressure in recent years. 

Its growth, especially in the crucial Chinese market has stalled as competition has jumped. It has continued to underperform other companies in the beauty industry like L’Oreal Paris, Procter & Gamble, Shiseido, and Coty. 

China is a key market for Estee Lauder as it accounted for a quarter of its sales last year. Its sales there have dropped as consumers scale back their purchases amid a weakening economy. Consumers are also shifting to equally good, but cheaper, brands. 

Most of this slowdown occurred during Fabrizio Freda’s tenure, which lasted from July 2009 to late last year. 

Estee Lauder’s annual numbers indicate that its revenue has been on a downward trajectory, a trend that may persist for some time. Its annual revenue peaked at $17.7 billion in 2022 and then dropped to $15.9 billion in 2023 and $15.6 billion last year. Wall Street analysts anticipate that its revenue will drop to $14.8 billion this year. 

In addition to replacing the CEO, the company is taking more measures to boost its stock performance. It is cutting over 7,000 jobs, focusing on innovation, and simplifying its management structure. 

Q3 earnings ahead

The next key catalyst for the Estee Lauder stock price will be its financial results, which will provide more information on whether its business is doing well.

The management have already downgraded their revenue and profit estimates. Analysts now anticipate that the upcoming numbers will show a 10% decline in revenue to $3.52 billion.

They also anticipate the fourth-quarter revenue guidance will be $3.57 billion, a 7.8% annual decline. Its profitability is also to be weak, with the earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 31 cents, much lower than 97 cents a year earlier.

Estee Lauder stock price analysis

The EL share price plunged by 20% when it published its results in February because it lowered its guidance. As such, another downward revision of its guidance will not be particularly catastrophic for the stock.

On the positive side, the stock has formed a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart. This pattern comprises of two falling and converging trendlines. A bullish breakout typically occurs when these lines are about to converge, which is currently happening.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Estée Lauder stock price will bounce back after its earnings. If this happens, the next level to watch will be at $70. In the long term, the stock may recover and hit the resistance at $100, the lowest swing in October 2023. 

Read more: Estee Lauder stock price may recover in 2025: here’s why

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The US Dollar Index rose modestly last week after Donald Trump softened his tone about Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, and his tariffs. After initially falling to a low of $97.50 on Monday, the index ended the week at $99.17. This article explores why the US dollar index rose and whether this is the end of the sell-off.

Why the US dollar index rose

The greenback has been in a strong sell-off after hitting the key resistance level at $109.85 earlier this year. 

This sell-off happened after Donald Trump was sworn in and started a trade war with other countries. He started his trade war by announcing huge tariffs against Canada and Mexico, two of the US’s biggest trading partners.

These tariffs effectively ended the USMCA trade deal that he negotiated in his term. After that, he announced sweeping tariffs on cars, aluminium, and steel. And then earlier this week, he delivered his Liberation Day speech, in which he delivered his ‘reciprocal’ tariffs. 

All these unilateral issues forced investors to question the role of the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. There were also concerns about the rising odds of the US falling into a recession this year. 

All these factors pushed invesors to other currencies like the Swiss franc, euro, Japanese yen, and sterling. 

The US dollar index has now stabilized after Trump expressed his hope of having trade deals with other countries. Talks are going on with countries like Japan and South Korea.

Also, the US has announced that the US will start talking with China to lower the substantial tariffs. The WSJ has reported that the US was considering lowering his tariffs against China to 50% as its opening salvo. 

However, Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, has warned that a trade deal between the two countries will take time to happen. He expects the deal to take a few years to conclude. 

Top catalysts for the US dollar

Looking ahead, trade will be the most important catalyst for the US dollar index in the coming weeks. Signs of major trade deals will support the currency and push its value higher.

The other top catalyst will come out on Tuesday when the Conference Board releases the consumer confidence report. This is a crucial report since consumer spending is the biggest part in the US economy. Weak confidence leads to low spending. 

The US will also publish the latest GDP data on Thursday. After expanding in Q4, analysts anticipate a slight recovery in Q1 as tariff jitters rose. The IMF downgraded the US economic guidance for the year in its outlook last year. 

The US will then release the latest nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. Economists expec the data to show that the economy added 140k jobs in April after creating 228k in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

DXY Index technical analysis

The daily chart reveals that the US dollar index has rebounded in the past few days. It jumped from a low of $97.50 to $99.71. However, there are signs that the index remains in a deep sell-off. 

It has already formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed each other. It has also retested the key level at $99.71. A break-and-retest is a popular continuation sign.

It has also formed an inverse cup and handle pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the DXY Index is bearish, with the next level to watch being at $95. A break above the resistance at $101.56 will invalidate the bearish outlook. 

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The SPDR S&P  500 ETF (SPY) has bounced back in the past few weeks, rising from the monthly low of $483 to a high of $550. Similarly, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) has risen to $401 from a low of $366, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has risen to $472 from a low of $400. 

This article looks at the top three catalysts that will impact these ETFs later this week. 

Corporate earnings will impact SPY, DIA, and QQQ ETFs

The main catalyst for the three blue-chip ETFs will be corporate earnings by some of the biggest companies in the world. 

Apple, the largest company in the US, and a constituent of the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100, will be one of these firms. It will publish its financial results on Thursday this week. 

These numbers come as concerns about it remain. Its iPhone sales are not growing as they did in the past, while its innovation in artificial intelligence has lagged behind its peers. A good example of this is Siri, which cannot handle basic questions. 

Amazon will also publish its results on Thursday. As the biggest e-commerce player, these results will shed light on the impact of tariffs on its business. 

Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Berkshire Hathaway will be the other top companies that will release their results this week. These firms, which are part of the Magnificent 7, will provide more details about the growth of the AI industry.

In line with this, the May 4 Berkshire Hathaway meeting will be important for the stock market,

The other top firms to watch will be Eli Lilly, Chevron, Qualcomm, Waste Management, Visa, Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, and Illinois Tool Works.

The earnings season so far has been good although, as expected, companies have warned about tariffs. FactSet data shows that the earnings growth of companies that have published their results so far stood at 10.1%. If this is the final figure, it will mark the second straight quarters of double digit growth rate. 

US consumer confidence, GDP, and NFP data

The other top catalyst for the SPY, QQQ, and DIA ETFs is top macroeconomic data from the United States. 

First, the Conference Board will publish the latest consumer confidence data on Tuesday. Economists expect the data to reveal that confidence dropped in April because of Trump’s tariffs. A significant drop in confidence is usually a sign that the economy is softening and even moving into a recession.

Second, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the latest GDP data on Thursday. Analysts expect the data to show that the economy softened in the last quarter as tariff jitters rose.

The final key data to watch will be the nonfarm farm payrolls on Friday. These numbers will provide more details on the economy. 

However, the general view of all these numbers, including the earnings, is that they are transitory as they don’t include Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

Trade news will impact S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100

Further, trade news will have an impact on the SPY, DIA, and QQQ ETFs. The general view among analysts is that the US and China may start negotiating soon. China has already started to offer exemptions on some goods from the US that it lacks alternatives. 

The WSJ has reported that the US wants to slash China tariffs as its openings salvo for trade talks. If this happens, there is a likelihood that the three indices will continue rising this week. 

A trade deal will help to reduce the rising recession odds in the United States and boost asset prices. 

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Travel and hospitality giants such as Booking Holdings (BKNG), Airbnb (ABNB), and Expedia (EXPE) will be in the spotlight as they release their financial results. These numbers will provide more details about their growth and the impact of tariffs on the travel industry. This article provides their forecasts ahead of their results. 

Airbnb stock price analysis

Airbnb is a top player in the travel and hospitality industry, where it offers vacation rentals around the world. Its services are used by millions of people each quarter, because of their perceived cost advantages. 

Airbnb’s business has been slowing in the past few years as competition from companies like Booking and Expedia rose. The most recent results showed that its fourth-quarter revenue rose by 12% to $2.5 billion, bringing the annual figure to $11.1 billion. The net income rose by 19% to $461 million and the annual one jumped to $2.6 billion. 

Analysts expect that Airbnb’s results will show that its revenue rose by 5.5% in Q1, by just 5.49% from the same quarter last year. 

The daily chart shows that the Airbnb stock price has been under pressure in the past few months. After initially surging following its earnings report, it erased those gains and was trading at $122 today. 

It has formed a death cross pattern on the daily chart, meaning that the downtrend will continue after earnings. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at $100 and $130 (200-day moving average).

Read more: Airbnb stock price analysis: bullish patterns are forming

Booking Holdings stock price forecast

Booking Holdings is a top company that owns brands like Booking.com, Priceline, KAYAK, and OpenTable. 

The company’s business has performed well in the past few years, a notable achievement for a firm that has been in operation for many years. 

Its recent results showed that its revenues increased by 11% in 2024, while its net income rose by 47%.The average room nights rose by 9% to 1.1 billion. 

Altogether, Booking Holdings made $23.7 billion last year, while its net income soared to almost $6 billion. 

Analysts see the company’s revenues coming in at $4.59 billion, a 4% annual increase. Its forward guidance for the year will be $25.23 billion, followed by $27 billion next year. 

The daily chart shows that the Booking stock price has been in a downtrend in the past few months. It dropped from a high of $5,325 in December to the current $4,800.

The stock has formed a bullish flag pattern, pointing to an eventual rebound. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at $5,325, up by 10% from the current level. 

Read more: Booking stock price slowly forms a risky pattern ahead of earnings

Expedia Group stock analysis

Expedia Group, the parent company of Expedia, Hotels Group, Vrbo, Orbitz, and Travelocity, will release its results on May 8. 

The last financial results showed that Expedia’s revenue rose by 10% in the fourth quarter to $3.18 billion. Its operating income jumped by 109% to $216 million its EPS rose to $2.40. 

Analysts expect the numbers to show that Expedia’s business did modestly well in Q1. The average estimate is that its revenue rose by 4.35% to $3.01 billion. The annual estimate is that its revenue will be $14.38 billion.

Expedia stock price has crashed in the past few weeks, moving from a high of $206 to $160. The stock is about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 200-day and 50-day moving averages has narrowed. 

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will drop, and possibly retest the support at $150 after its earnings. 

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