It has been a hard time for the AMD stock price, which has crashed by over 56% from its highest level in 2024. AMD has plunged to a low of $100, its lowest level since October 2023, giving it a market cap of over $156 billion. This valuation is much lower than its peak of over $335 billion. 

AMD is gaining data center share as concerns remain

AMD, once a beloved semiconductor company, has come under pressure in the past few years as concerns about its business continued. 

This retreat happened as the company has continued to gain market share in the booming data center industry. With Intel’s business being on edge, AMD has become the biggest competitor to NVIDIA, the biggest chip company in the industry.

The most recent financial results showed that AMD’s business was doing relatively well. Its revenue rose by about 24% to $7.65 billion, while the gross margin rose from 47% to 51%. Its operating margin rose from 6% to 11%. However, the net income dropped to $482 million. 

The results showed that its data center business was doing well, helped by products like EPYC, Instinct, Kintex, and SolarFlare.

The data center business performed well in the quarter. Its revenue rose by 69% to $3.85 billion, while the operating income rose by 74% to $1.15 billion.

The challenge, however, for AMD is that its other segments were not doing well. Its gaming segment had a revenue of $563 million, down from $1.368 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. The embedded revenue dropped from $1.057 billion to $923 million. 

Analysts expect AMD growth to continue

Most analysts anticipated that the company would continue doing well this year. The average revenue estimate among 35 analysts is that its revenue will grow by about 30% to over $7.1 billion. The highest revenue estimate was $7.46 billion, while the lower estimate is $6.9 billion.

Analysts expect that AMD’s annual revenue will be $31.8 billion, up by about 23.3% from a year earlier. It will then make $38.47 billion next year. 

AMD’s earnings are expected to continue doing well. The average estimate is that AMD’s earnings will be 93 cents in the current quarter, followed by 4.7 cents this year. This will be a big increase considering that the company made an EPS of $3.31. It will then rise to $6.33 next year. 

Going by AMD’s history, there is a likelihood that its revenue and earnings metrics will be higher than estimates.

The challenge, however, is that there are signs that the AI bubble is starting to burst. A good example of this is the recent NVIDIA earnings. While NVIDIA’s earnings were strong, the company signaled that its growth was slowing.

On the positive side, Wall Street analysts are upbeat about the AMD stock price. The average estimate is that the stock will rise to $148 from the current $100.

AMD stock price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the AMD share price peaked at $226.95 in March. It has dropped from the key support at $163.96, the highest swing in November 2021. 

The stock moved below the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bears are in control. 

This chart shows that the stock has moved to a low of $93.70, which was the lowest swing in October 2023. Further, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have moved downwards. 

Therefore, the AMD share price is at a crucial support level, where it needs to bounce back. A break below that level will point to further downside, potentially to the support at $54, the lowest swing in October 2022, which is about 45% below the current level. A rebound, on the other hand, will see it bounce back to the key psychological point at $150.

Read more: AMD stock price forecast: it could get ugly soon

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The SCHD ETF has retreated in the past few weeks as American equities dived. The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF has dropped to a low of $27.45, down by almost 7% from its highest level this year. It has, nonetheless, done better than popular indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the Dow Jones.

Wall Street slashes S&P 500 forecast

The SCHD ETF retreated after major Wall Street players slashed the S&P 500 forecasts for the year citing the ongoing tariffs and uncertainties in the US.

Goldman Sachs, the premier Wall Street bank, lowered its estimate for the S&P 500 index from $6,500 to $6,200. The bank noted that the downgrade reflected a 4% drop in the fair-valued P/E multiple from 20.6x to 21.5x.

Goldman Sachs joins other big players who have downgraded the target. Citi analysts lowered the estimate and recommended that investors should focus on Europe, where major indices like the German DAX, French CAC 40, and Spanish IBEX 35 are hovering near their all-time highs.

HSBC, on the other hand, has recommended investors should rotate from the US and move to China. They noted that Beijing was now keen on supporting local businesses gain market share and be more productive to boost economic growth.

More Wall Street banks could decide to slash their S&P 500 index forecasts this year. The most bullsh analysts are from Oppenheimer who expects the index to rise to $7,100. They are followed by analysts from other banks like Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank, Yardeni, Evercore ISI, and BMO Capital Markets, who all expect the index to jump to over $6,800.

Read more: SCHD ETF stock faces headwinds and tailwinds: is it a buy?

SCHD ETF is less exposed to tariffs

The SCHD ETF will likely do better than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices if the ongoing trade war continues. That’s because its top companies are less exposed to these tariffs.

The biggest component in the SCHD ETF is in the financials segment, which accounts for a 18.7% share of the fund. Most of the financial services companies in the fund operate in the US and have little exposure globally. As such, financial companies will likely not be impacted by these tariffs. 

The second-biggest category is health care, which includes companies like Abbvie, Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Pfizer. Trump has warned that he will apply tariffs to companies in the pharmaceutical industry. However, these firms will be little affected because they rely on Medicare and Medicaid insurance payments. 

Therefore, while other categories like industrials and consumer staples will be exposed to these tariffs, odds are high that their weakness will be offset by energy, healthcare, and financials. 

SCHD ETF stock analysis

The daily chart shows that the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF formed a double-top pattern around the $29 resistance level. This is one of the most bearish patterns in the market. The stock has also moved slightly below the lower side of the ascending channel. 

Therefore, like most US equity ETFs, there is a likelihood that it will have some volatility, and possibly retest the 100-day moving average at $25.7. A move above the resistance at $29 will invalidate the bearish view.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs have crashed into a bear market this year as they declined by over 20% from their all-time highs. Blackrock’s IBIT has tumbled to $45, while Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark Invest’s ARKB have fallen to $70 and $80, respectively. 

These ETFs have fallen and suffered significant outflows in the past few months. IBIT now has about $47 billion in net assets, while FBTC and ARKB have $15 billion and $3.7 billion, respectively. Grayscale’s GBTC has $15.5 billion. Here are the four main reasons why one should buy or dollar cost average (DCA) spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Top 4 reasons to buy or DCA IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB

There are several key reasons why you should consider buying these spot Bitcoin ETFs: Bitcoin still has strong fundamentals, BTC has moved into a bear market before, and a recession is a good thing for crypto.

Bitcoin price has crashed into a bear market before

The first main reason why one should consider buying spot Bitcoin ETFs is that this is not the first time that Bitcoin has plunged into a bear market before. For example, it dropped by 32% from its highest point in March to its lowest point in August last year. 

Bitcoin also crashed by over 77% from its highest level in 2021 and its lowest point in 2022. There have been many similar crashes in the past. 

This means that Bitcoin’s surge to a record high of over $109,300 this year has not been a linear situation. The coin has had several highs and lows, meaning that this one will also be temporary. 

BTC has strong fundamentals

Second, Bitcoin has strong fundamentals that may push its price higher in the long term. The most important fundamental is its demand and supply. 

Bitcoin, unlike other assets, has a fixed supply of 21 million tokens. Millions of these coins have been stolen, while the current circulating supply stands at over 19.83. This means that Bitcoin miners are now fighting for just 1.17 million coins.. Not all these 1.17 million coins will be mined as the cost will be so high. 

At the same time, Bitcoin executes halving every four years, which increases the mining difficulty. All this will happen at a time when investors are buying these assets, with all spot Bitcoin ETFs bringing in over $35 billion in inflows. Therefore, these fundamentals will keep supporting Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT, GBTC, FBTC, and ARKB.

Read more: Crypto crash triggers $1 billion in liquidations: time to buy the dip

Bitcoin price break and retest pattern

The other reason why the IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB ETFs will do well is that Bitcoin is simply doing a break and retest pattern, a popular continuation sign. This is a situation where an asset crosses a key resistance and then retests it. In this case, it crossed the resistance at $73,600 a few months ago, and is now dropping to retest it. This resistance is notable since it was the highest level in March last year.

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

Recession is a catalyst for Bitcoin ETFs

The other potential catalyst for spot Bitcoin ETFs is that the US may go through a recession this year because of Trump tariffs and the upcoming government shutdown.

A recession is a good catalyst for cryptocurrencies because it leads to lower interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

Bitcoin and all altcoins surged during the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero. Similarly, the stock market surged after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) after the Fed slashed rates and implemented quantitative easing (QE).

QE is a situation where the Federal Reserve prints cash and invests in government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Crypto and other risky assets do well when the Fed is cutting rates and implementing QE.

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The crypto market may receive a potential catalyst if the US sinks into a recession later this year as some analysts predict. This recession will be driven by the ongoing cuts by Elon Musk and his DOGE team. Also, the ongoing Trump tariffs will contribute to a recession. Let’s explore some of the best crypto coins or altcoins to buy ahead of a US recession. 

Is it safe to buy crypto coins during a recession

A recession is one of the worst periods in an economy as it is usually characterized by slow growth and high unemployment. In theory, a recession should be a bad thing for financial assets. 

However, in practice, it is one of the best situations for them since the Federal Reserve often intervenes by cutting interest rates and implementing quantitative easing (QE).

History shows that assets like stocks and crypto dip initially and then bounce back after the Fed’s interventions. Some of the best crypto to buy during a recession are Jasmy, Sei, and Pepe. 

JasmyCoin (JASMY)

Jasmy, often seen as Japan’s Bitcoin, is one of the best crypto coins to buy the dip if the recession happens. 

It is one of the most popular cryptocurrencies, and this week, it became compatible with Ethereum and Base by integrating with Chainlink’s CCIP. 

Jasmy has strong technicals that may help it to rebound in the coming months. While it has crashed below the key support at $0.0154, it has formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart. 

This pattern, which is characterized by two descending trendlines, is one of the most bullish signs in the market. Jasmy has also moved into the oversold level. 

Therefore, the JASMY price will likely bounce back as investors buy the dip. The initial target will be at $0.022, the lowest swing in August last year, which is about 70% above the current level. A move to its 2024 high at $0.0595 will be a 360% surge from the current level. 

Read more: Jasmy price analysis as crypto pro sees a 1000% jump

Pepe (PEPE) 

Pepe, the third-biggest meme coin, is another top crypto coin to buy ahead of the next recession. 

The main reason for buying it is that it has formed a double-bottom pattern at $0.00005863, whose neckline is at $0.00002835. 

Pepe price has also formed a falling wedge pattern, with two lines converging at the double-bottom level. That is a sign that the coin may be on the verge of a strong bullish breakout in the coming days. If this happens, the next key resistance level to watch will be at $0.00001720, its highest swing on May 27 last year. This price is about 150% from the current level.

Sei (SEI)

Sei price has been in a strong downward trend even as its ecosystem has done well. Its total value locked (TVL) has continued rising, with it rising by over 87% in the last 30 days to over $332 million. 

Sei price has formed a double-bottom pattern at $0.2012, whose neckline at $0.7375. That is a sign that the coin will bounce back in the coming months. A move to the neckline at $0.7375 signals a 265% jump from the current level. Also, moving to its 2024 high of $1.1442 would signal a 470% increase from the current level. 

Other top altcoins to buy ahead of a recession

There are many other altcoins to buy ahead of the coming recession and FOMC decision. Some of the most notable ones are Polkadot (DOT), Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR), and Chainlink (LINK).

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It has been a sea of red in the crypto market, with Bitcoin and other altcoins being in a bear market. The crypto fear and greed index has tumbled, while fears of a recession remain in the US markets. Still, several altcoins have major catalysts that may push them higher in the coming months. 

Top 4 altcoins to buy with significant catalysts ahead

Some of the best altcoins to buy that have major catalysts ahead are Polkadot (DOT), Binance Coin (BNB), IOTA (IOTA), and Ripple (XRP).

Polkadot (DOT)

Polkadot is one of the top crypto to buy that has a big catalyst ahead. The main catalyst for the DOT token is that the developers are working on Polkadot 2.0, which promises major improvements ahead. 

This upgrade introduces three key elements, including elastic coretime, asynchronous backing, and agile core allocation. 

This upgrade aims to ensure that Polkadot achieves substantial success as other chains have done in the past. 

One of the most important parts of this upgrade is that it removes the need for the parachain auctions that are known to be costly and time-consuming. Instead, it will now be possible for developers to build quality decentralized applications (dApps) without following the auctions route. 

Polkadot 2.0 will improve its governance and cross-chain interoperability. Most importantly, DOT price has formed a quadruple bottom pattern pointing to an eventual rebound. 

Read more: Polkadot price predictions: 4 reasons DOT token may surge soon

Binance Coin (BNB)

Binance Coin is another top altcoin to buy that has a good catalyst ahead. The main catalyst is that the network will go through the Pascal hard fork on March 20th. This upgrade introduces native smart contract wallets by incorporating Ethereum’s EIP-7702 upgrade.

Pascal hard fork will also facilitate gasless transactions and batch approvals, enhance its EVM compatibility, and improve security. 

It will be one of the three planned hard forks that the developers have planned. The other one is the Lorentz hard fork that will happen in April that will reduce the block generation time to just 1.5 seconds. 

The developers will also launch the Maxwell hard fork in Jun, reducing the block time to 0.75 seconds, achieving a near-instant transaction finality. 

IOTA 

IOTA is another altcoin to buy with a big catalyst ahead that may boost its price. The primary catalyst for the IOTA price is the upcoming rebased upgrade. 

Rebased is a major upgrade that introduces key features that make the network better. The most important aspect of the upgrade is that it introduces the UTXO model powered by MoveEVM, enabling developers to build applications on it. It will also be compatible with Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).

IOTA holders will also benefit from improved tokenomics, whose annual inflation starts at 7% and then drops over time. It will also have a big staking yield of between 10% and 15%. Also, IOTA will boost the transaction speeds to over 50,000 transactions per second (tps).

XRP

XRP is one of the top altcoins to buy with major catalysts ahead. The SEC may decide to end the lawsuit against Ripple Labs. In addition, Ripple Labs is working to boost its market share against SWIFT, the society that handles over $150 trillion worth of payments each year. 

The SEC may also approve a spot XRP ETF later this year, leading to higher inflows from institutional investors over time. XRP has also been named as one of the top cryptocurrencies that will be in the US Strategic Reserves. All these factors may help its price surge again later this year. 

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